Hurricane IDA made landfall earlier this morning in Central America. The storm has been downgraded to a depression and it continues to drop heavy rain across Central America. Over the weekend IDA has the potential to
re-emerge over water and strengthen into a hurricane. Here is the NHC’s take on the storm:
AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD…THE CYCLONE SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA AND…ASSUMING THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO SEVERELY
DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND…THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER…THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ONLY A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
REGION…WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IDA
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AFTER IDA
ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO….THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN
INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS…PARTICULARLY THE FORMER…SHOW SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF IDA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD
BE RECALLED HOWEVER THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A
HIGH BIAS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS…AS WAS THE CASE WITH
TROPICAL STORMS DANNY…ERIKA…AND HENRI OF THIS YEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY…THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD
THE WEAKER LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.
Ida Forecast Path
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