The latest hurricane model forecast have put potential U.S. landfall of Hurricane Ike along the Texas Gulf coast. This puts the region from Port Lavaca to Port Arthur at the greatest risk. Landfall of Hurricane Ike is dependent on the speed of Ike over the next few days. If Ike continues at a quick pace it will result in a more southern landfall. However, if the pace of Ike slows, then the hurricane will likely be picked up by the southwest winds aloft forecasted this weekend. Refardless, Hurricane Ike is forecasted to be major hurricane at this time period with winds in excess of 115 mph.
The upper level winds and sea surface temperatures provide a favorable environment for Hurricane Ike. SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico are greater than 29 C. The current water temperature from near Galveston is 86 F,
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXTIDHGX. In addition to the already warm waters in the Gulf, Hurricane Ike will pass over three eddies of warmer warmer which will add fuel to the fire. Some of the latest computer models make Hurricane Ike a category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Residents along the Gulf coast should keep a close watch on Hurricane Ike.
Hurricane Ike rapidly strengthened from a strong tropical storm to a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of 115 knots within a 12 hour period on Wednesday 9/3. This is an even faster intensification than what we saw with Hurricane Gustav. Other notable rapid strengthening storms are Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Ethel.
There are a number of factors that led to the rapid intensification of Hurricane Ike. First, it was over some very warm water in the central Atlantic, as seen per the SST link below. Second, there was virtually no wind shear aloft allowing strong deep convection to get rooted into the warm oceanic heat content. And of course, it had a well developed eye. Earlier on Wednesday 9/3 the satellite presentation of Ike looked good but it lacked an inner core. Once the core developed Hurricane Ike exploded.
A similar scenario is setting up in the Gulf of Mexico, which will likely allow Hurricane Ike to explode again. To view the latest computer models see the links below.
Tropical WX 
